The Concept of Reach and Value, and Why It Has No Real Value

In the third round of the NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills drafted wide receiver TJ Graham from North Carolina State. When Mike Mayock from NFL Network said that he had Graham rated as a seventh round pick, Twitter and media alike blew up saying the Bills made a huge mistake, trading a seventh round pick to move up two spots to reach for a guy that would be there four rounds later.

Which is absurd. First off, Mike Mayock (who I hugely respect and think he’s one of the best out there), is not an NFL team’s scout. Therefore he does not look at players from how they will fit into that team’s specific scheme. Mayock also isn’t perfect. He has also made mistakes before. Drafting is an inexact science. It’s all about predictions, but we will never know how good a pick was until these players have played in the NFL.

Secondly, we can have no idea how long a player will last because teams evaluate players differently. The only way a player can universally be regarded as a value or a reach is if teams all played the same (or very similar) schemes. That way players would fit into each team in the NFL the same way. Then we could say “Wow, he fell that far?” or “Wow, that was a bad pick at that point in the draft.”

Bottom line is this: the concept of reach and value makes for interesting discussion, but each team evaluates the same player differently due to how they play offense and defense. Keep up the discussion, but don’t hammer or praise a pick because of it being a reach or a value. Look at how that player fits into what that team wants to do. That’s how the value of a pick should be determined, how he plays for his team. Not where he was taken in a crap shoot.

2012 NFL Draft And Adding a Left Tackle

With the NFL Draft getting ready to kick off a week from tonight, a recurring theme is coming up: the franchise left tackle. Every team wants one, few have one, and there are not many available. The consensus best tackle in the draft is USC’s Matt Kalil. The tackles after him all have pretty sizable questions that need to be answered before they can be considered worthy of a top ten pick.

Which is why I think a team like the Minnesota Vikings should add Kalil while the Buffalo Bills would be better off adding an impact player at another position, such as wide receiver, cornerback, or linebacker if they do not think that the tackles left are worthy of the tenth pick. General manager Buddy Nix prefers drafting the best player available, and I believe that there will be better players available than the remaining left tackles.

First, the Vikings should take Kalil because they are trying to develop a young quarterback who has little experience. Christian Ponder could very well turn out to be a very good quarterback, but in order for that to happen, he needs to get comfortable in the pro game. Best way to do that is to get him weapons and allow him some time to stand in the pocket.

The Vikings already have some talented players on offense, like running back Adrian Peterson and wide receiver Percy Harvin. Wide receivers Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State and Michael Floyd from Notre Dame would be nice additions, but there will be receivers available later who can come in and produce. The talent level drop-off is greater from Kalil to the rest of the tackles.

In the Bills’ situation, Kalil should certainly be off the board by the time the tenth pick rolls around. That leaves tackles like Jonathan Martin from Stanford, Riley Reiff from Iowa, and Cordy Glenn from Georgia.

Martin protected Andrew Luck in college, so you know he must have done something right. However, there are questions about his physicality, which needs to be addressed to be a long-term started in the NFL.

Some people view Reiff as a right tackle, not a left. He has the ideal physicality and mentality of an offensive lineman, but he is not quite as athletic as teams want their blind-side protectors to be.

Glenn has the ideal size, but a number of people think he would be a better fit inside as a guard.

So you can see that there are questions, and while the Bills need to add tackles, Chris Hairston was adequate as a rookie last season. We don’t know how good he can be, but unless Nix and his scouts are confident that any of those tackles will be enough of an upgrade to be worth the tenth pick, they should not be the pick.

Also to consider is the offensive scheme the Bills run. They like to rely on a quick passing game that helps protect both quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and his offensive line. Teams win without elite or highly-drafted left tackles, and the Bills could do the same if their defense comes around.

With that being said, if the Bills do believe one of the left tackles is a good fit for the team and feel that the questions have been answered adequately, then by all means, draft that player. I just don’t think that the situation merits reaching for a tackle when there are other players that will be available that can help solidify other parts of the team.

Quick Thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ 2012 NFL Draft

Just some quick preliminary thoughts on the Bills’ 2012 NFL Draft.

After the signings of defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, general manager Buddy Nix has more freedom on how he uses his picks. He loves getting the best player at any given pick, but with two pass rushers in the fold, he no longer has to worry about addressing the DE position unless a player the scouts love is there.

The Bills should be looking at a number two wide receiver to line up across from Stevie Johnson and a left tackle to push Chris Hairston.

Other than that, the Bills need to get quality depth on the offensive line, at wide receiver, at linebacker (especially at outside), and at the cornerback position. Once the injuries started piling up later in the season, the offense lost all its explosiveness it had at the beginning.

With the switch back to the 4-3, the Bills are lacking quality depth at the outside linebacker position. The cornerback depth is lacking, with Terrence McGee continuing to get older and not getting any healthier. Also, Leodis McKelvin still continues to struggle, but hopefully with a much better pass rush this season, the secondary as a whole will flourish.

The Buffalo Bills are definitely moving in the right direction, but they always get bitten by the injury bug which reveals their weakest point: depth. With nine picks this draft, they are in good position to add quality depth across the board. Depth that will enhance some very good signings and re-signings which will hopefully end an entirely too long playoff drought.

Mario Williams and the Buffalo Bills

Shortly after NFL Free Agency started today at 4 PM, news broke that premier free agent defensive end Mario Williams’ first visit would be to Orchard Park, New York and the Buffalo Bills. Since that news broke, Michael Lombardi of NFL Network has said that the Bills are the frontrunners for Williams’ services and barring any last minute offers, the Bills are likely to land him.

So what does this mean?

It means that once again, Bills fans can trust what general manager Buddy Nix says. Nix said that the Bills were going to make a big splash in free agency. Even if they don’t sign Williams, the simple fact that they got him into Orchard Park before meeting with any other team and are prepared to make him the highest paid defensive player in the league (according to the Buffalo News) qualifies as a big splash. Nix may not say a whole lot, but when he does, Bills fans should be listening.

Pursuing Mario Williams also means that the Bills believe that they are contenders. They were the only AFC East team to beat the New England Patriots last year, but they did not win any other games in the East. Getting an elite pass rusher will certainly improve their prospects of contending in the East and the AFC as a whole.

Head coach Chan Gailey did say that the team is confident they can win the AFC East (profootballtalk.com). Unless a team is confident they are a contender, they tend not to make big splashes in free agency with players who are entering the prime of their careers.

Finally, this proves that Ralph Wilson is not cheap. If the Bills do make Williams the highest-paid defensive player, that argument has become invalid. The Bills have paid out large contracts before that people gloss over. This one cannot be glossed over.

Wilson is over 90 years old. He has two AFL championships, but no Super Bowls. He wants at least one. Signing Mario Williams is definitely a good step that builds on the offensive progress under Coach Gailey. Now defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt has to build up the defense that has been the team’s Achilles’ heel for the past few years.

Nothing is certain. Mario Williams has not yet signed with the Buffalo Bills. There are other teams interested in signing him. What is certain is that the Bills believe themselves to be serious players this season and are willing to make moves in March to ensure that.

2012 Buffalo Bills: The Need For a Pass Rush

The Buffalo Bills have lacked a pass rushing threat since defensive end Aaron Schobel retired after the 2009 season. Since then, the Bills have tried Aaron Maybin, Shawne Merriman, and Arthur Moats to pressure quarterbacks. None have made a consistent impact (Moats did deliver the hit that ended quarterback Brett Favre’s consecutive start streak, however).

Now with new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt and transitioning back to the 43 scheme, the Bills are once again in the market for pass rushers to combat the NFL becoming a pass-happy league. With a good amount of cap room available this off-season, the Bills will look to both free agency and the draft to add talent to one of the weakest parts of the team.

With free agency starting March 13th, the Bills have a few options to pursue. Obviously the top pass rusher available in free agency is the Houston Texans’ defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams. The Texans’ first overall pick in the 2006 draft, Williams has amassed 53 sacks in six seasons (the last two shortened by injuries) according to NFL.com. While the injuries are a worry, Williams is an elite pass rusher that would look very good next to defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus. Unfortunately, that elite status will command attention from a lot of teams and a lot of money from whatever team ends up with his services.

After Williams, the talent pool in free agency dries up fairly quickly. There is another elite pass rusher available, but the Atlanta Falcons’ John Abraham is also 34, which means his skills will be on the decline fairly shortly. If the Bills were Super Bowl contenders and needed one pass rusher to put them over the top, then they should look at Abraham. Unfortunately, the Bills are simply trying to sniff the playoffs, therefore a 34 year old pass rusher is not a fit for this team.

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Jeremy Mincey could be a nice depth pickup, but he will not reinvigorate the pass rush by himself. He did have eight sacks last season, but that more than doubled his career total per NFL.com. The Bills have to ask whether he simply performed better to get a good free agent contract, or if he is simply getting better as he plays more.

Free agency as a whole simply does not offer a lot of quality pass rushing options. The 2012 NFL Draft could certainly pay off much better than free agency because of the amount of players available. Unfortunately, the draft does seem to lack a superstar talent like a Mario Williams. GM Buddy Nix has gone on record as saying that he is impressed with the depth of the defensive end class in the draft, which suggests he sees better options in rounds other than the first, or at least with the tenth overall pick.

The Bills could still go pass rusher with their first pick, and University of South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram is a real possibility. With 21.5 sacks in 52 games played according to cbssports.com, Ingram did contribute plays, but there still are questions whether he can be a dominating force in the NFL, especially concerning the length of his arms.

All the defensive ends in the draft have concerns, but the deeper into the draft, the Bills can start to overlook some of the questions and look more at potential. Possible picks include Marshall’s Vinny Curry, University of Southern California’s Nick Perry (who also might warrant some consideration with the 10th pick, according to some), and Nebraska’s Jared Crick.

With a definite need for a pass rush, the Bills will likely look to the draft to add talent. As the off-season progresses towards the end of April and the draft, Man Meets Football will be compiling scouting reports on multiple players, especially defensive ends. So stay tuned for a further look at these players.